Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine

Accounts of an impending American-Russian presidential meeting have been overstated, apparently.

Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to meet Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.

A initial get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."

• Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
• Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed

The frequently changing meeting is just the latest twist in Trump's efforts to broker an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.

"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost four years.

Less Leverage

According to Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's move to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president benefited from a history of supporting Israel dating back to his initial presidency, including his decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.

The American leader, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that gave him special sway over the nation's head.

Add in Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an deal.

In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the global economy and intensify the war.

Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - only to then back off in the wake of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.

The president often boasts about his ability to meet and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the war any nearer a resolution.

The Russian president may in fact be using Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.

In July, Putin agreed to a summit in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that the president would approve on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently delayed.

Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia called Trump who then promoted the potential meeting in Hungary.

The next day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.

Trump maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"You know, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he said.

But the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the sequence of events.

"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he said.

Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially urging Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – including land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has finally decided on advocating a truce along current battle lines – something Russia has refused to accept.

During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since abandoned that pledge, saying that ending the war is proving more difficult than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when both parties wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.